Professor Anil Kumar Gupta’s Perspective on Avoidable Deaths
Professor Anil Kumar Gupta’s Transcript
1. Do you think it is possible to achieve the Sendai Framework’s first two global targets? The first target is to reduce disaster mortality substantially by 2030, and the second is to decrease the number of affected people significantly by 2030.
The Indian experience, like that of similar developing nations, shows a significant reduction in deaths from conventional and recurring disasters, such as cyclones, floods, and now increasingly, heatwaves. However, this success is offset by an increase in fatalities from newer disaster types, including accidents, building collapses, drowning, flash floods, and landslides. Furthermore, the expansion of urban and human habitats, increased population density through redevelopment, and encroachment on ecosystems—coinciding with more frequent extreme events—are leading to a significant increase in the number of affected people. Infrastructure vulnerability, poor land-use planning, and inadequate design and maintenance are major contributors, especially in cities, alongside the uncertain shocks faced by agriculture-dependent communities. In summary, while possible, achieving these targets will require more time and effort, particularly for the second target, which hinges on how effectively we address the “underlying causes of risks and vulnerabilities.”
2. In no more than two sentences, what is the most effective way to achieve the Sendai Framework’s first two targets?
I strongly recommend localising the Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) agenda through risk-sensitive land-use and landscape planning, integrated with carrying capacity principles. Additionally, an effective science-policy-action interface is essential for enhancing risk assessments from a systemic perspective and for blending Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Machine Learning (ML) with traditional and local knowledge to strengthen local capacities.
3. In your opinion, which organisation should take the lead in achieving Sendai’s first two targets?
Globally, leadership should be provided by a consortium of United Nations (UN) organisations involved in DRR, health, labour, humanitarian aid, environment, land, and financial institutions. At the national level in India, an empowered group can be formed by top institutions or ministries (e.g., those responsible for DRR, health, social welfare, rural and urban development, labour, and the environment). This group should be based within a knowledge institution that offers comprehensive expertise and insights into DRR and adaptation issues.
4. Are you aware of any good practices in reducing the number of avoidable disaster deaths and affected people?
India’s cyclone preparedness marks a significant success story, driven by enhanced, accurate cyclone early warning and tracking, coupled with robust local preparedness. This includes effective coordination, established cyclone shelters, and cooperation among the community, government, and civil society. Odisha has led the way, and recent events, such as Cyclone Biparjoy in Gujarat, have showcased a zero-casualty strategy in cyclone disaster management. Furthermore, the development of Anticipatory Action (AA) over the traditional Heat Action Plan (HAP) in heatwave-affected regions is producing sustainable benefits. This approach involves strong community-focused initiatives, cooling measures, and health preparedness, which are effectively reducing not only fatalities but also the number of individuals exposed to and affected by extreme heat in India, with case examples from Uttar Pradesh and Odisha.
5. Why should we reduce avoidable disaster deaths and the number of people affected by disasters?
Mortality (loss of life) is the critical and central measure of disaster impacts. However, morbidities and other effects on people’s lives—including losses to livelihoods, health, and resources—create significant distress and often contribute indirectly to fatalities. The increasing, widespread effects of disasters and extreme events call for greater emphasis on these key impact indicators, which directly align with the first two targets of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction (SFDRR): reducing global disaster mortality and reducing the number of affected people.