Updates on Sendai Targets A & B: Snapshot of Sendai Framework Monitor 2014-2023
By Prof Nibedita S. Ray-Bennett
The United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR) monitors the seven global targets of the ‘Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030’ (hereafter Sendai Framework) through a set of 38 indictors as well as its related dimensions reflected in the Sustainable Development Goals, 1, 11 and 13 (UNDRR, 2024a). One hundred and eighty-seven UN Member States who ratified the Sendai Framework (Mizutori, 2023) are expected to report the progress of the global targets through the Sendai Framework Monitor (SFM) (UNDRR, 2024a). The SFM was released in 2018 and acts as a tool to guide risk-informed policy decisions and to allocate resources accordingly towards reducing risk. It also acts as a platform for accountability through data for the UN Member States (UNDRR, 2024a). In March 2024, a ‘Snapshot of SFM’ was published by UNDRR covering 2014-2023 (UNDRR, 2024b). This Snapshot of SFM is relevant to ADN because it provides vital data for the first two global targets:
- Target A or One: Substantially reduce global disaster mortality by 2030; and
- Target B or Two: Substantially reduce the number of affected people globally by 2030.
ADN is a member of the UNDRR’s Sendai Framework’s Voluntary Commitment Platform. We are committed to supporting the achievement of global targets A and B. ADN’s activities are geared around these targets and we submit a six-monthly progress report to the UNDRR – Kobe Office on the same. As such the Snapshot of SFM is reviewed in this article, particularly to inform ADN’s future activities and knowledge so that lives can be saved from the impact of direct and indirect disasters. Results from the Snapshot of SFM During the period 2014-2030, 160 countries (82% of countries in the world) reported global targets through the SFM. This means 85% of the UN Member States who ratified the Sendai Framework submitted data and 15% did not. Of these 160 countries, 80 countries (50%) reported on all seven targets and another 80 countries (50%) did not. Of these, 106 countries (66%) reported on all the SDG-related targets (A-E) and 54 countries (34%) did not. Highlights Targets A and B
- Target A – Disaster-related deaths and missing persons (excluding COVID-19)
Based on data submitted by 160 countries, average disaster-related mortality per 100,000 population declined from 1.62 in 2005-2014 to 0.82 in 2014-2023 (a decline of 49%). In absolute terms, between 2015 and 2023, the average annual disaster-related mortality stood at 41,273 persons (UNDRR, 2024b).
- Target B – Disaster affected population
Based on data submitted by 160 countries, the number of disaster-affected people Increased from 1,187 per 100,000 population during 2005-2014 to 2,032 during 2014-2023 (an increase of 71%). On an average, more than 125 million people were affected by disasters each year globally during 2015-2023 (UNDRR, 2024b). Countries carrying the burden of disaster deaths and number of affected populations Countries that are carrying the burden of disaster deaths and affected population are classified as ‘Countries in Special Needs’. These Countries are grouped as: Least Development Countries (LDC), Small Island Developing States (SIDS), and Landlocked Developing Countries (LLDCs). According to the SFM data, there are 45 LDCs, 37 SIDS, and 32 LLDCs in the world.
- Target A – Disaster-related deaths and missing persons (excluding COVID-19)
In the period 2014-2023, 26.6%, 0.4%, 14.9% of mortality burden as a percentage of globally reported total mortality was shared by LDC, SIDS and LLDC, respectively (UNDRR, 2024b).
- Target B – Disaster affected population
In the period 2014-2023, 15.1, 0.4, 7.9 persons were affected by disasters as a percentage of the globally reported total affected population shared by LDC, SIDS, LLDCs, respectively (UNDRR, 2024b). Implications for Avoidable Deaths Network (ADN) Despite an increase in disasters (WMO, 2021), the results for target A are welcoming for the period 2014-2023 compared to 2005-2014. There is a decline of 49% in disaster-related mortality per 100,000 population in the latter period. However, the caveat of the SFM data is that it combines disaster deaths and missing persons. It is important to disaggregate these categories of deaths to improve disaster risk management practices. Furthermore, the burden of disaster-related mortality is carried largely in LDCs followed by LLDCs. As such, these countries merit special support from the UNDRR and developmental organisations to promote an equitable risk reduction approach. The results for target B, on the other hand, are concerning. The number of disaster-affected people has increased by 71% in the period 2014-2023 compared to 2004-2015. This is, however, an underestimated data because 50% (80) of the UN Member States who ratified the Sendai Framework did not report on these two targets. Furthermore, of the total of 187 countries, about 15% did not submit any data at all. Therefore, vital statistics as well as ‘causes and circumstances’ (Jonkman and Kelman, 2005; Ray-Bennett, forthcoming) surrounding affected populations are undocumented. Again, the burden of people affected by disasters is carried by the LDCs followed by LLDCs warranting special assistance and support to reduce them. When the affected people are not supported, they are pushed into poverty[1], ill health, and homelessness, including indirect disaster deaths (Ray-Bennett, 2023; Japan Times, 2019). Currently, indirect disaster deaths are not documented on SFM. Considering this data, ADN has decided to target the Global Campaign ‘International Awareness Day for Avoidable Deaths’ (IAD4AD) in some of the LDCs and LLDCs in 2025. IAD4AD was launched on 12 March 2023 to increase public knowledge and awareness towards:
- indirect disaster deaths and missing persons and capture their impact on the lives and livelihoods of the deceased family members;
- causes and circumstances that lead to disaster deaths so that context-specific interventions can be put in place to save lives (Jonkman and Kelman, 2005; Kelman, 2005; Paul, 2021); and
- value the number of lives saved and the saved lives (Ray-Bennett and Shiroshita, 2023).
The ADN Presidents also met with the UNDRR’s SFM team to seek advice and support. To increase the uptake of the global campaign, contacts have been made with 10 prospective campaigners in these target countries. Conclusion To conclude, the Snapshot of SFM provides excellent data to reflect and re-assess ADN’s global campaign activities as well as for others who are committed to reducing the number of disaster deaths and affected people from disasters (targets A and B). Furthermore, as the number of disaster deaths continues to decline and the number of affected people continues to increase (with implications for indirect disaster deaths), it is recommended that the UNDRR and UNDP focus on increasing knowledge and methodology to document indirect disaster deaths and the causes and circumstances surrounding these deaths on SFM. Also, it is important to investigate the underlying reasons for the increase in the affected population and develop targeted interventions to address vulnerabilities. By doing so, targeted interventions would increase efficiency in achieving other global targets. Without this, the UNDRR would continue to implement the first two targets as stocktaking exercises rather than bringing positive change at national and local levels (Ray-Bennett, 2023).
References
Jonkman, S.N. and Kelman, I. (2005) ‘An analysis of causes and circumstances of flood disaster deaths’, Disasters 29(1): 75-97. https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.0361-3666.2005.00275.x
Japan Times (2019) ‘Editorials: Indirect disaster deaths’, The Japan Times, 23 March. Mizutori, M. (2023). Statement on the 8th anniversary of the adoption of the Sendai Framework. Available at: https://www.undrr.org/news/statement-8th-anniversary-adoption-sendai-framework
Ray-Bennett, N.S. (2023) Midterm review of the implementation of the Sendai Framework: Implications for Avoidable Deaths Network. ADN Newsletter 5(2023). Available at: https://www.avoidable-deaths.net/2023/12/24/updates-on-sendai-goals-a-and-b/
Ray-Bennett, N.S. (forthcoming) Avoiding disaster deaths: Why do so many people die? Springer, Switzerland. UNDRR (United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction) (2024a). Monitoring Sendai Framework. Available at: https://www.undrr.org/implementing-sendai-framework/monitoring-sendai-framework
UNDRR (United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction) (2024b). Snapshot of Sendai Framework Monitoring: As of March 2024. Available at: https://www.undrr.org/media/97977/download?startDownload=20241201
WBG (World Bank Group) (2016). Press release: Human and economic costs of disasters underestimated by up to 60 percent. Available at: worldbank.org